Two Stage Fusion Rockets

Getting to the stars won’t be easy. But nor will it be utterly impossible either, as “Project Icarus” is showing with its research. One option for our hypothetical flight to the stars is using pure fusion propulsion – for acceleration and braking. To that end, the most efficient rocket is a staged rocket, when the exhaust velocity is much smaller than the required mission velocity.

Say we want to fly to Alpha Centauri in 100 years. If we could accelerate and decelerate in an instant, then the total mission velocity is twice the average velocity (I.e. 4.36 ly/100 years = 0.0436c times two, or 0.0872 c, some 26,000 km/s.) Of course we can’t do that, so our vehicle must spend some time accelerating and braking. But what is optimal? If we spent the whole trip under constant acceleration the delta-v (total velocity change) would be twice the instant acceleration figure. Rockets have to carry their propellant so maintaining constant acceleration requires an engine that can be throttled over a wide power range – not easily done and very wasteful as less thrust is needed during the later part of the journey. No point carrying all that extra engine mass uselessly. Thus the Stage Rocket – drop big engines and empty tanks as you go.

Carrying propellant in tanks and figuring out the mass of engine needed to push itself plus tanks, plus propellant plus payload, means the size required is not easy to figure out. We need to be resigned to relatively small mass-ratios or else the mass required goes to infinity – i.e. more propellant means more engine which means more tankage which means more propellant… creating an asymptote. For example if tankage masses 3% of the propellant then the absolute highest, for zero engine and payload mass, is a mass ratio of ~33. But there’s a way to do it – we add stages. Stage mass-ratios multiply which means enough stages can allow us to achieve arbitrarily high mass-ratios.

We also want to minimise the power required and we do that by clever thrust programming. For a given voyage time, exhaust velocity and voyage distance we can find a minima – but it’s not easy. Minima are typically found by setting the derivative of a function with the relevant variables to zero i.e. we find P (power) in terms of thrust time, then find dP/dt and set it to zero, solving that equation for thrust time. And the derivative is horrible! There’s no unique solution – unlike the case for constant acceleration (not constant thrust) in which case minimum power is achieved by thrusting for 1/3 the voyage time.

By graphing and hunting for the minima visually a trip to Alpha Centauri lasting 100 years requires a Power/Mass ratio of 144.6 kW/kg, a mass-ratio of 6.65 and a cruise speed of 0.0632c for an exhaust velocity of 10 million m/s, if the thrust time is 62% of the voyage time. Assuming a 450 tonne “Daedalus” class payload, 3% tankage/propellant mass and an engine specific power of 500 kW/kg means a second stage mass of 5,535 tonnes and a total launch mass of 68,090 tonnes.

However, as in many things, the functions are rather surprising – minimum power doesn’t equate to minimum mass. That’s achieved with a thrust/voyage ratio of 0.34 and a mass of 37,806 tonnes. The P/M ratio is 178.7 kW/kg and the mass-ratio is 4.835, giving a cruise speed of 0.0525c. Assuming a specific engine power of 500 kW/kg remember. What happens if the specific power is 300 kW/kg? Thrust time is 43%, stage 2 masses 6,922 tonnes and launch mass is 106,500 tonnes. A dramatic difference!

Next post in this series I will explore what happens when we change the exhaust velocity and voyage times.

Life in the Year 100 billion trillion – Part I

If our Universe is open, either flat or hyperbolic in geometry, then it will expand forever… or at least until space-time’s warranty expires and a new vacuum is born from some quantum flip. Prior to that, most likely immensely distant, event the regular stars will go out and different sources of energy will be needed by Life in the Universe. A possible source is from the annihilation of dark matter, which might be its own anti-particle, thus self-annihilating when it collides. One possibility is that neutrinos will turn out to be dark matter and at a sufficiently low neutrino temperature, neutrinos will add energy to the electrons of atoms of iron and nickel by their annihilation. This is the energy source theorised by Robin Spivey (A Biotic Cosmos Demystified) to allow ice-covered Ocean Planets to remain hospitable for 10 billion trillion (1023) years.

Presently planets are relatively rare, just a few per star. In about 10 trillion years, or so, according to Spivey’s research, Type Ia supernova will scatter into space sufficient heavy elements to make about ~0.5 million Ocean Planets per supernova, eventually quite efficiently converting most of the baryon matter of the Galaxies into Ocean Planets. A typical Ocean Planet will mass about 5×1024 kg, be 12,200 km in diameter with 100 km deep Ocean, capped in ice, but heated by ~0.1 W/m2 of neutrino annihilation energy, for a planet total of ~50 trillion watts. Enough for an efficient ecosystem to live comfortably – our own biosphere traps a tiny 0.1% of the sunlight falling upon it, by comparison. In the Milky Way alone some 3,000 trillion (3×1015) Ocean Planets will ultimately be available for colonization. Such a cornucopia of worlds will be unavailable for trillions of years. The patience of would-be Galactic Colonists is incomprehensible to a young, barely evolved species like ours.

We’ll discuss the implications further in Part II.

Space Solar Power – a decadal study reported


Space Solar Power Satellite

Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence News reports that a major decadal study of space solar power has been completed, and I must say it is very thorough. Here’s the news link…

A limitless power source for the indefinite future

…the PowerSats described mass ~10,000 tonnes per GW delivered to the ground, at about 50% SPS->Ground efficiency. That’s hefty, but the economic analysis indicates it’s probably acceptable. I’m just not overly convinced yet that the PowerSats need to be so massive. However read for yourself and get a feel for the issues. Quite a few materials concerns that I haven’t pondered before were covered, so there’ll be surprises in the report for everyone.

Here’s the report link… Space Solar Power: The First International Assessment of Space Solar Power: Opportunities, Issues and Potential Pathways Forward

Futures of the Earth

James Lovelock once estimated Earth’s biosphere would crash in about 100 million years when carbon dioxide levels dropped too low. James Kasting and Ken Caldeira updated the model to include a different photosynthetic cycle amongst land plants, pushing back Doomsday to about 900 million years in the Future. Those “900 million years” before Earth overheats is based on a certain model of Earth’s response to the Sun’s gradual rise in luminosity. That particular model assumes everything else will remain the same, but that’s unlikely. If the partial pressure of nitrogen declines, then the greenhouse effect from carbon dioxide will decline and the Earth could remain habitable to life for another 2.3 billion years. Alternatively because the greenhouse instability of the Earth is driven largely by the thermal response of the oceans, if Earth became a desert planet then it would remain habitable until the Sun reaches ~1.7 times its present output. Combined with a reduced atmospheric pressure, it means Earth might remain habitable until the end of the Sun’s Main Sequence in 5.5 billion years.

But this all assumes no technological intervention. Several scenarios are possible – a variably reflective shell engulfing the Earth is the simplest. Planet moving and Solar engineering are more dramatic possibilities. Given sufficient thrust a leisurely spiral of the Earth outwards from the Sun would compensate for the brightening, though the pace of travel would need to be rather rapid for a 6 billion trillion ton planet to escape the more dramatic stages of the Sun’s Red Giant Branch (RGB).

Once the Sun hits the Horizontal Branch/Helium Main Sequence, the habitable zone will be roughly where Jupiter will be – as the Sun’s mass loss during the RGB will cause all the orbits to expand by ~30%. The HB offers just 110 million years of stability before the Sun begins a series of dying spasms known as the Asymptotic Giant Branch. Not healthy for any of the planets. If the RGB’s mass-loss can be tweaked a bit, then the Sun won’t hit the HB at all and will slowly decline into being a helium white dwarf. Earth can remain in the white dwarf Sun’s habitable zone then for billions more years, more if it spirals inwards as it cools.

Post 100 YSS… First, Fast Thoughts

As a fan I can tell you it was an SF-Fan’s dream come true to meet, in the flesh, so many SF-writers and so many Icarii, as well as the Heart & Mind of the TZF. People I met, for the first time, but have corresponded with for a while…

(1) Paul Gilster & Marc Millis, the guys who set the train in motion some years ago
(2) The Icarus Interstellar Board
(3) wide Team Icarus
(4) The Benford Twins
(5) my co-author, Gerald Nordley, and perhaps the best ultra-hard SF writer I know.
(6) Athena Andreadis, molecular biologist and SF thinker
(7) John Cramer, author of “Analog’s” ‘The Alternate View’ and physicist
(8) Jack Sarfatti, the Showman of Speculative Physics

Others I met/heard who maybe aren’t so well-known, but may prove influential in times to come. Such as Young K. Bae, laser propulsion research and inventor of the Photonic Thruster (a very clever multi-bounce photon-propulsion system.) Mark Edwards, of Green Independence, who might have a way of feeding Starship Crews and the whole of Starship Earth.

Fast thoughts – David Nyeland gave a us BIG hint on how to launch a Starship in 100 years… reach out to EVERYONE.

Orlando is Awesome!

Too much to tell on the very aggressive schedule here, so a detailed report will need to wait, but I met a FAN! You know who you are. Thanks for the encouragement and I promise more content – I have some actual journal paper ideas gestating and I will need input from my audience, I suspect. One is a paper on Virga-style mega-habitats and Dysonian SETI, to use a new idea from Milan Cirkovic. The other looks at exoplanets and Earth-like versus the astrobiology term of “habitable” – the two are not the same and the consequences are sobering. The recent paper by Traub (go look on the arXiv) which estimates 1/3 of FGK stars has a terrestrial planet in the habitable zone does NOT mean there’s Earths everywhere. What it does mean and how HZ can be improved as a concept is what I want to discuss.

More later. I have my talk to review and get straight in my head – no hand notes, though I have practiced it – plus I want something helpful to say to Gerald Nordley, mass-beam Guru, on the paper he graciously added me as a co-author. Also I will summarize my talk and direct interested readers to the new web-site from John Hunt, MD, on the interstellar ESCAPE plan.

Off to Orlando

Tomorrow morning, local time (GMT+10) I am boarding a plane for Sydney to connect to a Delta flight to LAX, then Orlando International, Florida. Why, you may ask? Off to the 100 Year Starship Symposium, to present, network and hopefully create the seed organization that will launch a Starship by 2111!

Not all by myself, but as part of the amazing team that is behind “Project Icarus”. Eventually, we hope, we’ll be a (BIG) part of the effort to reach another star system. I am unsure how much Net time I will have while over there, so any updates may have to wait for my return to Oz. See you all then!

SpaceX to Mars! Here’s How…

Following on from my Mars Anthology there’s now more Mars Society material available online…

Trans-Orbital Railroad to Mars

…a Picasa Web-Album of slides from the weekend elaborating on Robert Zubrin’s latest concept, which I have discussed previously. I was particularly struck by this one, which I first saw on “The Space Review”…

…from Jeff Foust’s evocative article on the Transorbital Railway concept. I didn’t realise when I first read Jeff’s essay that Zubrin had given a talk on the concept. Here’s the slide…

…which explains how the two-person crew have a quite roomy inflatable habitat attached to the Dragon to fly to Mars in. Provocatively Zubrin notes that some astronauts have already experienced cosmic-radiation exposures equivalent to the full mission to Mars, with no ill-effects noted thus far…

…seems the ISS (and MIR before it) have done a great service to the Mars effort by slaying this particular bogey. The serious issue of Solar high-energy events remains – otherwise known as solar-flares – but these can be mitigated by relatively simple shielding. Ultimately we’ll have magnetic deflectors for the particle stuff, but the x-rays will need careful shielding even then.

Once the First Expedition arrives, here’s how “Mars Base One” will look…

…ready to expand into a fully operational Base, if the nations of the world are willing to help. The Falcon Heavy can send significant payloads to Mars, not just people. Industrial machinery can be sent, able to begin utilization of local resources on Mars. Additive manufacturing technology can be used to make small components and, with sufficient incentive, can lend itself to larger manufactured items. Mars has plentiful carbon, oxygen & hydrogen to make plastics and polymers, and doubtless it has minerals of all kinds.

Of course the first two products should be propellant for the rockets and power-cells (solar or other.) Proper reusable Mars ferries will allow transfer of returning crews to waiting ERVs, eliminating the need to send separate MAVs. With sufficiently proven life-sustaining resources (material, technical and personnel) the Base can start receiving one-way arrivals – true Colonists. That’s something I’d like to see all nations, who are willing, to contribute towards. Let Mars be the true melting pot to alloy something wonderful out of all of Old Earth’s children.

Falcon Heavy to the Planets!

A reverse chronological order anthology of my recent posts on the Falcon Heavy announcement and the plans of the Mars Society for a minimalist mission.

SpaceX to Mars! …go Mars-Soc!

SpaceX to Mars? …first discussion of the minimalist Mars mission of Mars Society.

Mars – the New World! …why Mars is the New World of our half millennium now the Old World is fully reached.

Falcon Heavy to the Moon! – Part 2 …elaboration on Moon Base operations.

Falcon Heavy to the Moon! …first mention of the Falcon Heavy Tanker concept.

Beyond the Moon via Falcon Heavy …a revised post about the Falcon 9 Heavy in light of the new version. Posted after the Moon Base discussion, but begun first.

SpaceX to Mars!

This story keeps getting more interesting as I trawl around the Mars-Soc web-site. Bob Zubrin discusses the plan in more detail…

Discussion of Using SpaceX Hardware to Reach Mars

2. Technical Alternatives within the Mission Architecture

a. MAV and associated systems

In the plan described above, methane/oxygen is proposed as the propulsion system for the MAV, with all the methane brought from Earth, and all the oxygen made on Mars from the atmosphere. This method was selected over any involving hydrogen (either as feedstock for propellant manufacture or as propellant itself) as it eliminates the need to transport cryogenic hydrogen from Earth or store it on the Martian surface, or the need to mine Martian soil for water. If terrestrial hydrogen can be transported to make the methane, about 1.9 tons of landed mass could be saved. Transporting methane was chosen over a system using kerosene/oxygen for Mars ascent, with kerosene coming from Earth and oxygen from Mars because methane offers higher performance (Isp 375 s vs. Isp 350 s) than kerosene, and its selection makes the system more evolvable, as once Martian water does become available, methane can be readily manufactured on Mars, saving 2.6 tons of landed mass per mission compared to transporting methane, or about 3 tons per mission compared to transporting kerosene. That said, the choice of using kersosene/oxygen for Mars ascent instead of methane oxygen is feasible within the limits of the mass delivery capabilities of the systems under discussion. It thus represents a viable alternative option, reducing development costs, albeit with reduced payload capability and evolvability.

b. ERV and associated systems.

A kerosene/oxygen system is suggested for Trans-Earth injection. A methane/oxygen system would offer increased capability if it were available. The performance improvement is modest, however, as the required delta-V for TEI from a highly elliptical orbit around Mars is only 1.5 km/s. Hydrogen/oxygen is rejected for TEI in order to avoid the need for long duration storage of hydrogen. The 14 ton Mars orbital insertion mass estimate is based on the assumption of the use of an auxiliary aerobrake with a mass of 2 tons to accomplish the bulk of braking delta-V. If the system can be configured so that that Dragon’s own aerobrake can play a role in this maneuver, this delivered mass could be increased. If it is decided that the ~1 km/s delta-V required for minimal Mars orbit capture needs to be done via rocket propulsion, this mass could be reduced to as little as 12 tons (assuming kerosene/oxygen propulsion). This would still be enough to enable the mission. The orbit employed by the ERV is a loosely bound 250 km by 1 sol orbit. This minimizes the delta-V for orbital capture and departure, while maintaining the ERV in a synchronous relationship to the landing site. Habitable volume on the ERV can be greatly expanded by using an auxiliary inflatable cabin, as discussed in the Appendix.

c. The hab craft.

The Dragon is chosen for the primary hab and ERV vehicle because it is available. It is not ideal. Habitation space of the Dragon alone after landing appears to be about 80 square feet, somewhat smaller than the 100 square feet of a small standard Tokyo apartment. Additional habitation space and substantial mission logistics backup could be provided by landing an additional Dragon at the landing site in advance, loaded with extra supplies and equipment. Solar flare protection can be provided on the way out by proper placement of provisions, or by the use of a personal water-filled solar flare protection “sleeping bag.” For concepts for using inflatables to greatly expand living space during flight and/or after landing, see note in Appendix.

…which gratifyingly echoes my own thoughts. Landing a Dragon directly on Mars has a great appeal and as a Mars Descent Vehicle it’s a good system, given the modifications Zubrin outlines. But is it a Mars Habitat? The Inflatable extensions make it viable and I was wondering if Bigelow, SpaceX and Mars-Soc couldn’t combine forces on a design. Zubrin argues for eventual extensions of the architecture itself, calling for eventual Heavy Lift systems able to throw 30 tonnes to Mars, but IMO the Falcon Heavy Tanker modification is sufficient to launch ~24.7 tonne payloads now and with an LH2/LOX Stage II it might easily launch ~30-40 tonnes. Alternatively two FHTs can be ganged to launch 55-60 tonnes directly now. However such modifications are deployed is perhaps irrelevant. What’s needed is the political will to commit to Mars Colonization, not just a one-off stunt. All the good ideas to improve how we get there are irrelevant until we actually do…